He-4 Abundance

The ΛCDM Tension

Helium-4 carries the cleanest theory in cosmology, Y_p = 0.247 from known first-second physics with sub-half-percent uncertainty, and the messiest precision measurement: EMPRESS anchors pull toward 0.237 to 0.240 while Izotov-Thuan samples and CMB damping-tail constraints sit at the standard value, a spread among methods exceeding the individual error bars. The element that should arbitrate the first second is itself awaiting arbitration.

The ΛCDM Assumption That Creates It

The model leans on helium as its rigid first-second anchor: N_eff bounds, lepton asymmetry limits, and injection constraints all inherit the adopted Y_p. With determinations split beyond their errors, every such constraint quietly carries a measurement choice, and the model has no internal way to pick the true plateau.

SCT Resolution: M2 (The Same Anchor, with Declared Stakes)

SCT's helium position is structural identity: the cascade terminates before one second (P40), weak freeze-out proceeds in equilibrium (P42), and the framework's registered prediction is the standard Y_p = 0.2449 +/- 0.0040 with no SCT-specific shading (P29, P30 carry the yields forward untouched). The framework therefore reads the present spread as measurement systematics until proven otherwise, and stakes itself on that reading: helium is one of the three constraints (with the deuterium abundance and FIRAS spectral purity) that anchor the cascade-termination timeline itself, so SCT cannot shop among determinations any more than ΛCDM can.

What the framework adds is the cross-anchor structure: SCT's first second is additionally constrained by the derived baryon loading (R_b at 0.17σ from observation) and the cascade-geometry N_eff = 2.514, so the helium plateau, when settled, lands in a web of derived first-second numbers rather than a single fitted one. A standard plateau confirms the termination timeline; a genuinely low plateau strains it in a declared, quantified way, while also pressing the ΛCDM N_eff sector, since the same Y_p shift that suggests lepton asymmetry shifts the inferred radiation density toward SCT's lower derived value.

This is the same shared-jeopardy stance as the plateau-shift entry, held at the level of the element itself. There is no need to adjudicate the dwarf-galaxy emission physics from the armchair; the framework declares what each outcome costs.

Falsifier

The registered kill: a settled primordial Y_p deviating from 0.2449 by more than 2σ falsifies the cascade-termination timeline that makes SCT's nucleosynthesis standard. The cross-anchor adds a second blade: helium and N_eff must move consistently under the cascade structure, so a settled standard Y_p alongside a CMB-S4 N_eff at 3.046 (against the derived 2.514) would also break the first-second geometry, from the radiation side.

Premise Grounding

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